Every year I try and determine who the top ten RB's will be. Usually the ADP that most people use is a very safe formula that isn't a whole lot different than the actual top ten of the previous year. Us fantasy footballers are conservative like that.
But each year there are big surprises.
In 2009, here was a sampling of the average ADP of the top ten with their actual finish beside their name (non-ppr)
Peterson (2)
MJD (3)
Turner (23, injured)
Forte (17)
Deangelo (14 injured)
TOMLINSON! (19)
Steven Jackson (12)
Chris Johnson (1)
Slaton (36)
Gore (5)
The guys that finished in the top ten and their pre-season ADP
4. Rice (19)
6. T.Jones (25)
7. R.Williams (58!)
8. Grant (15)
9. Charles (56)
10 Addai (22)
Interesting numbers to look at. What strikes you immediately is that injury plays a decent part in determining which players fall out of the top ten, as shown by Deangelo and Turner, two guys who probably make the top ten if they don't get injured. Then you have your busts, Slaton and Forte (although pre-season fluff pieces will argue that injuries were the downfall of both last year).
So there's really no need to look at this year's ADP and try to figure out who will get injured and who will bust, because we don't really know. That's almost impossible to figure out.
What we need to do is look at the guys that snuck in last year and figure out how to identify the best candidates. While Rice and Jamaal Charles certainly exploded on the scene, Thomas Jones and Ricky Williams showed that old guys can get back into the mix and this can help us determine the best opportunites for top ten production this year. Here is my list, and I'm going to try and stick with players with ADP's above 20. (http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?year=2010&teams=12&pos=rb)
High Confidence:
1. Joseph Addai ADP (20)--Go get this guy! Everyone is waiting on Donald Brown to explode and take the reigns. Here is a guy who finished in the top ten last year, who has looked good in the pre-season, and who is still the starter in 2010 for one of the top 3 offenses in the entire league! Why is his ADP at 20??
2. Arian Foster ADP (24)--Why is the starting RB on a top 5 offense at 24 in mock drafts done in the past week? Ben Tate is no longer a factor for 2010. Steve Slaton is....Steve Slaton. Maybe it's because he's unproven? I guess. I think that Foster is a slam-dunk for the top ten if he stays healthy.
Probably not, but certainly have the ability:
3. Clinton Portis ADP (36)--Shanahan's system..LJ and Parker are both flailing (who would have imagined). Torain and Williams are both unknowns...Um, what are we waiting for? Shanahan will get a running game together and Portis seems like the perfect man for the job. Portis is 100% my "back from the dead" special in 2010. I think some people are scared off by him for some reason, but talk to Skins fans, and they'll all tell you that Portis is the horse for 2010. Yeah, of course injuries are a concern. But if he stays healthy, he could easily break the top ten.
4. Jerome Harrison (32)--I know, I know...Montario Hardesty. Listen, I'm sure that Hardesty will be ok. I was personally never blown away by him in college, but I've heard that the Browns are high on him. But in reality, how could they be? He's barely touched the field and has been injured for much of camp! Harrison meanwhile, dominated towards the end of 2009 and will begin the season as the starter. Harrison knows that this is his chance to be a starting RB and he knows he has a rookie hot on his tail. His ADP is extremely low and reflects the apprehension of fantasy owners to take a risk. But he has the talent, and the OL is good enough to help him reach a top ten ranking if he can hold off Hardesty.
Say What???
Yes, these are my flyers.
5. Leon Washington--(49) SAY WHAT??? That's right, Leon Washington. Look I know that he's never recorded 700 yards before. I know he is coming off of a gruesome injury in 2009 and that his career might seem to be slipping away (28). But this is one example of a time where you listen to the practice reports and the coaches. For the past 3 months nothing but praise has come Leon's way from the coaching staff. They never tried to rush him back, despite the fact that he supposedly felt great. Carroll has said things like "he can be special in this offense". Coach-speak? Yeah. But this guy gets healthy and immediately moves to the starting position over two guys who have been on the team for some time? Forsett, who has been WAY overrated on these boards just got passed like he was standing still. Leon seems extremely motivated, and he knows this is his last shot to have a couple big NFL seasons. From everything I have read, he is looking awesome and he could provide big things in 2010 to an unsuspecting fantasy world.
6. Darren Mcfadden--(44) Mcfadden has fallen to "after-thought" status by many. Michael Bush is widely assumed to be the man for the Raiders now. However, the reason I have Mcfadden here is simple. I'm going back to the scouting I did in college. I thought he was awesome. I thought he would be an awesome pro. Well guess what...he got straddled with the worst starting QB in NFL history. That couldn't help. Plus he has been injury-plagued. Also, didn't help. Yeah, it might be a stretch to assume that he can stay healthy for 16 games..But at an ADP of 44, I'll take that chance. This guy has the talent to be a top ten RB, and I think it's possible.
An Injury Away...
My last two have no chance unless injuries happen to the 1st stringers. But if they do...watch out.
7. Javon Ringer--I don't even see him on the list. I told people last year to watch out for Ringer, and I still stand firm to that statement. He was essentially redshirted last year, and is fresh and ready to go. He should get CJ much needed rest from time to time. In the event that CJ should get injured though, Ringer is a top ten RB lock. Not bad for a guy not even listed in these rankings.
8. Willis McGahee--(48) It would take a Rice injury...but McGahee really looked good last year and still has talent. He's also a slim candidate to get traded as the season approaches. He's just a handcuff and probably won't have much value, but if Rice were to get hurt...McGahee could easily be a top ten RB.
